Market Stabilises After Challenging Year
The Australian truck and van market passed the three-quarter mark of 2025 showing signs of stabilisation after sustained softness throughout the year. According to the Truck Industry Council (TIC), 33,727 heavy vehicles were sold through the end of September, an 11.8% decline from 2024’s record pace. While this represents a significant year-on-year drop, the market remains on track for its third-best year on record, suggesting resilience beneath the headline figures.
This report is based on official monthly data released by TIC and covers all major categories: Heavy Duty (HD), Medium Duty (MD), Light Duty (LD), and Light Duty Van (LDV), for the period from July to September 2025.
Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025: Slow but Steady
Total vehicle deliveries in September reached 3,878 units, down 14.7% from September 2024. The third quarter delivered 11,145 units overall, making it the third-strongest Q3 result on record, falling short of 2022 and 2024 by 203 and 1,411 trucks, respectively. The quarterly result was down 11.2% compared to the same period last year.
TIC CEO Tony McMullan noted a potential turning point in the market’s trajectory:
“The new heavy vehicle sales market was down 6.9 percent at the end of quarter one, dropping further to be down by 12.1 percent at the end of quarter two. Hence, the slight improvement that we saw in the market year-to-date at the end of quarter three, down 11.8 per cent, suggests that sales have steadied. Hopefully, quarter two was the low point and that we will now witness stabilised, or increasing, sales for the last part of 2025 and into 2026.”
Segment-by-Segment Breakdown
Heavy Duty (HD): Hardest Hit Category Shows Some Hope
The heavy duty segment remained the most challenged throughout Q3, with 3,416 units delivered, a 16.3% drop from Q3 2024. September was particularly difficult, posting 1,221 HD sales, down 20.2% year-on-year. Total HD sales through September stand at 10,563 units, 17.8% behind the same nine-month period in 2024.
Despite these steep declines, the stabilisation McMullan referenced may be most relevant here. If Q2 truly represented the low point, the heavy duty segment could see improved conditions in the final quarter.
Medium Duty (MD): Steep September Drop Overshadows Quarterly Performance
Medium-duty trucks took a significant hit in September, with just 507 units delivered, down 28.4% from September 2024. The quarterly result showed 1,578 MD trucks sold from July to September, the fifth-best Q3 result but down 20.6% on the same period last year.
Year-to-date MD sales total 5,276 units, a 12.4% decline representing 749 fewer trucks compared to the first nine months of 2024. The September result stands out as particularly weak within an already soft year.
Light Duty (LD): Resilience Continues in Q3
Light-duty trucks demonstrated relative strength throughout Q3, bucking the broader downward trend. The segment delivered 3,691 units from July to September, posting the second-best Q3 result on record and representing a 1.0% increase over the same period last year.
September was less impressive, with 1,292 LD trucks sold, down 3.3% from September 2024. Year-to-date sales stand at 9,913 units, down 8.4% compared to 2024’s first nine months. The slower year-to-date performance reflects weak first-half sales rather than current market conditions, as Q3 showed the segment’s ongoing resilience.
Light Duty Vans (LDV): Second-Best Q3 Despite September Weakness
Van sales recorded the second-best Q3 result on record with 2,460 units delivered, though this represented a 12.8% decline from the exceptional Q3 2024 performance. September saw 866 vans sold, down 11.6% year-on-year.
The year-to-date tally stands at 7,975 units, 6.7% below 2024’s pace. While showing a decline, the van segment remains the least affected by the 2025 market downturn, reflecting sustained demand for urban delivery and service vehicles.
Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism for the Final Quarter
The slight improvement in year-to-date decline rates from Q2 to Q3 suggests the market may have found its floor. While 2025 won’t match 2024’s record performance, the year remains historically strong, tracking toward the third-best result on record.
The final quarter will determine whether McMullan’s cautious optimism proves justified. Traditional year-end buying patterns, combined with potential economic stabilisation, could support improved Q4 performance. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and subdued business confidence may continue to weigh on purchasing decisions.
For fleet operators and transport businesses, the softer market conditions have created opportunities for competitive pricing and improved vehicle availability compared to the constrained supply conditions of recent years. This silver lining offers some compensation for businesses navigating challenging operating conditions.
Trust Retain Media for Industry-Leading Insights
As 2025 enters its final quarter, we’ll continue tracking trends across all vehicle categories and market segments. In the meantime, be sure to read our other market reports for a complete picture of Australia’s automotive industry as 2025 draws to a close.
Retain Media provides this data “as is” for informational purposes only and accepts no liability for decisions made based on this reporting. Users are encouraged to use this data as one of multiple data points in their market analysis.
