Australia’s truck and van market opened 2026 with continued weakness across all segments, according to the Truck Industry Council (TIC). The first quarter delivered 7,132 heavy vehicles, reflecting ongoing economic challenges that began in late 2025 and intensified through early 2026.
All four major segments recorded year-on-year declines in Q1, with medium-duty trucks experiencing the steepest drop. March posted particularly weak results with 3,665 trucks and vans sold, as Middle East geopolitical tensions drove fuel prices sharply higher, placing additional pressure on an already struggling market.
This report is based on official monthly data released by TIC and covers all major categories: Heavy Duty (HD), Medium Duty (MD), Light Duty (LD), and Light Duty Van (LDV), from January to March 2026.
First Quarter Performance Shows Broad Weakness
The opening three months of 2026 provided clear evidence that the market deterioration observed in late 2025 has continued into the new year. All segments recorded losses compared to Q1 2025 results, with total sales falling across the board.
TIC CEO Tony McMullan noted the challenging environment, stating ‘The new truck market in Australia was already tracking down for much of 2025 and that trend has continued into 2026.’
McMullan acknowledged that while the current geopolitical landscape is uncertain, it is not the reason for this downturn, and that the industry is still waiting to see how these events will impact new truck sales in Australia.
‘There is little doubt that the events in the Middle East…and the ensuing effect of fuel prices in Australia has placed the road freight industry under substantial financial stress. Business confidence in the sector is suffering considerably and understandably the significant increase in operational costs for transport companies may lead many organisations to review their immediate fleet expansion and/or fleet replacement plans,’ he added.
Segment-by-Segment Breakdown
Heavy Duty (HD) Suffers Double-Digit Decline
The heavy-duty segment recorded Q1 sales of 3,005 units, down 11.1% from Q1 2025’s 3,380 units. This represents a continuation of the weakness that plagued the segment throughout most of 2025.
March heavy-duty sales reached 1,240 units, down 9.0% year-on-year, with the segment shedding 123 trucks compared to March 2025. The first quarter performance reflects poor sales in January and February that set a difficult tone for the year.
The heavy-duty segment’s sustained weakness indicates operators remain cautious about committing to large capital expenditures. With fuel prices rising due to Middle East tensions and economic uncertainty persisting, buyers of prime movers and heavy rigid trucks continue to defer purchases.
Medium Duty (MD): Records 25-Year Low
Medium-duty trucks bore the brunt of Q1’s slowdown, posting the worst first-quarter result in 25 years. Q1 sales totalled just 1,075 units, down 35.4% from Q1 2025’s 1,664 units. This represents the poorest start to a year for the segment since 2001, when only 1,009 medium-duty trucks were sold in the opening quarter.
March contributed just 419 medium-duty trucks, down a significant 32.7% (204 trucks) compared to March 2025. The segment has lagged badly through all three months of 2026, with no signs of improvement.
The medium-duty segment’s collapse reflects its position in the market. These trucks often serve businesses that face immediate pressure from rising fuel costs and economic uncertainty but lack the scale or financial resources of heavy-duty fleet operators. The segment appears to be experiencing a perfect storm of constrained budgets and deferred replacement cycles.
Light Duty (LD): Showing Relative Resilience
Light-duty trucks demonstrated better performance than their larger counterparts, though still recorded meaningful declines. Q1 sales reached 2,630 units, down 10.2% from Q1 2025’s 2,928 units, representing 298 fewer light-duty truck sales.
March light-duty sales totalled 1,131 units, down just 3.9% (40 vehicles) compared to March 2025. While still negative, this represented the smallest percentage decline of any truck segment for the month.
The segment’s relative strength likely reflects its role serving smaller businesses and operations where trucks represent essential rather than discretionary purchases. Light-duty buyers appear less able to defer purchases indefinitely, as these vehicles often provide critical capability for ongoing business operations.
Light Duty Vans (LDV): Only Bright Spotlight
The van segment delivered the sole positive result for Q1 2026, bucking the broader market weakness. Q1 sales totalled 2,422 units, up 1.6% from Q1 2025’s 2,385 units, making it the only heavy vehicle segment in positive territory year-to-date.
However, March showed the segment’s momentum fading. Van sales totalled just 875 units, down 9.0% compared to March 2025. While the year-to-date result remains positive by 37 units, the March decline suggests even the resilient van segment is feeling pressure from deteriorating market conditions.
Vans continue benefiting from e-commerce growth and last-mile delivery demand that proves somewhat insulated from broader economic pressures. However, the March result indicates this protection may be weakening as fuel costs rise and economic uncertainty spreads.
Alternative Power Sales Remain Modest
TIC’s newly released Alternative Fuel Type report for March shows alternative powertrains remain a small but growing portion of the market. The report tracks battery-electric and hybrid vehicles across all segments.
March recorded 69 alternative fuel trucks and vans sold, bringing the Q1 total to 110 units. While modest in absolute terms, this represents growing manufacturer commitment to electric and hybrid options, particularly in the van segment where urban delivery applications suit current battery technology.
The breakdown shows various manufacturers offering battery-electric or hybrid options across segments, though adoption remains concentrated in lighter-duty applications where range limitations pose fewer operational challenges.
Market Outlook Remains Uncertain
McMullan provided a sobering assessment of the road ahead: ‘I believe that possibly April sales, but particularly May and June numbers will give a better indicator of the, likely, tougher times ahead.’
The CEO’s comments reflect the lag between ordering and delivery in the truck market. Current sales reflect orders placed two to four months earlier, before Middle East tensions escalated and fuel prices spiked. The full impact of recent geopolitical developments won’t appear in sales data until Q2 2026.
Several factors suggest continued pressure on the market. Diesel fuel prices have risen sharply due to Middle East instability, directly impacting operating costs for transport companies. Business confidence in the road freight sector is suffering considerably. Even if geopolitical tensions stabilise, the pathway back to normalised fuel prices extends many months into the future.
TIC predicts sales will remain subdued through at least the second quarter of 2026 as these pressures work through the market. Transport companies reviewing fleet expansion and replacement plans in response to higher operational costs will likely delay purchases, further depressing sales.
Segment Performance Summary
Australian Truck Sales Q1 2025-26 
The first quarter of 2026 confirms the market deterioration that began in late 2025 has not only continued but potentially deepened. The medium-duty segment’s 25-year low demonstrates how severely some market segments are struggling. Only the van segment’s modest growth provides any positive note in an otherwise difficult start to the year.
With fuel prices elevated, economic uncertainty persisting, and business confidence suffering, the outlook for Q2 remains challenging. The full impact of recent geopolitical developments has yet to appear in sales data, suggesting further weakness may lie ahead as the year progresses.
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As 2026 continues, we’ll keep tracking trends across all heavy vehicle categories and market segments. In the meantime, be sure to read our other market reports for a complete picture of Australia’s automotive industry as the year develops.
