The below review is based on TIC (Truck industry council) sales data.
The truck market follows fairly predictable patterns every year. Slow January leading to a peak in March as most of the OEMs have deals in market to clear stock / hit numbers for end of Japanese financial year (31st of March). April drops off and then build starts again to EOFY with June as the peak month every year for truck sales. July sees a big drop and then it starts slowly building towards end of year.
Overall
the market is in a strong position growing steadily over the past few years ending 2017 with 36,825 trucks and vans sold.
2018 has got of to a great start with sales in Q1 (Jan – March) up 21% on Q1 2017 with every segment posting increases.
Heavy Duty Trucks (3+ axle and all with GCM > 39t)
2017 started relatively slow / on par with previous years. The market started growing in the lead up to end of Fin year. The growth accelerated in the second half of the year with H2 up 27% on H2 2016.
Overall sales in 2017 were up 21.5% on 2016 and the year ended with 12,002 trucks delivered – the biggest year since 2017.
2018 has continued this strong growth with HD trucks are up 37% on Q1 2017.
Quite a few brands have had dramatic growth.
Kenworth’s market share was being gradually eroded over the past few years (they had 26% market share Q1 2015 which had dropped to 16% by Q1 2017). Kenworth grew 87% (202 units) Q1 2018 V 2017 to end the quarter on 551 units and regained some market share (current market share 19%). The other movers were
- Mercedes a smallish player in Heavy Trucks but one making inroads. Q1 2015 it had 5% market share and this quarter it sold double the trucks it did Q1 2017 to end the quarter with 2018 trucks retailed and 8% market share.
- Iveco: grew 87% (82 units) and regained the market share it had dropped in 2017. Iveco now sits on 6% market share (again) after Q1 2018
- Isuzu: grew 86% (197 units) Q1 2018 Vs Q1 2017 to finish with 427 trucks sold and has taken second spot (from Volvo) with 15% Market share
- Hino is a small player in Heavy Trucks with 3-4% market share. Having said that this quarter it sold double the trucks it did Q1 2017 to end the quarter with 129 trucks retailed.
Medium Duty Trucks (GVM > 8.0t, GCM < 39t)
2017 finished the year up 4% on 2016 with 7,312 medium truck delivered. 2018 is off to a strong start with Medium Duty truck delivery’s up 24% on Q1 2017. 1,768 MD trucks were delivered Q1 2018.
Hino and Isuzu dominate this market. The past few years combined they held about 70% market share.
MAN made an impact on the Medium Duty market in 2017 moving from 1% market share (77 trucks in 2016) to 6% (462 trucks) in one year and in 2018 this rapid growth is continuing. At the end of Q1 MAN have delivered 242 trucks and now hold 14% market share. In fact, the majority of growth this Q in this segment has been powered by Man (+233 units) and Fuso (+85 units) and Hino and Isuzu market share has dropped to 62%.
Light Duty Trucks (GVM between 3.5 and 8.0t)
Sales of Light Duty trucks have been steadily increasing the past few years and finished 2017 up 9% on 2016 to end the year on 11628 units.
This trend is continuing into 2018. 2,575 Light duty trucks were sold Jan – March 2018 and sales are up 10% (241 units) on Q1 2017
Fuso, Hino and Isuzu dominate this market combined accounting for 79% of sales.
The main mover this quarter has been Iveco who picked up 99 of these units and moved from 6% market share to 10% (with 245 sales)
Growth of online retailing and move towards last mile delivery has been the driver of growth in this segment the past few years and this trend is set to continue and so hopefully continue to provide growth into the future.
