The below review is based on TMA / Agrivew sales data and ATV report is based on FCAI sales data.
the market is in a strong position finishing 2017 up 8.1% to 12,652 units retailed. The last time more than 12,000 tractors were sold in a year was in 1982 (33 years ago).
The 100-200HP segment was the main drivers of growth last year and indeed over the past 5 years where sales have grown 48% since 2013 (vs 20% growth in the broader tractor market)
Q1 2018 has got off to a strong start with overall sales up 9% on Q1 2017.
Lifestyle Market (0-40HP)
The lifestyle / hobby farm market finished 2017 7.5% up on 2016 with 2,972 units retailed. Over the past 5 years this market has been growing and is up 15% on 2013.
Q1 2018 is relatively flat compared to Q1 2017 retailing 656 units (20 units less that q1 2017)
The Utility tractor segment is the biggest segment in the market and in 2017 accounted for 33% of all tractors sold. Its size is slowly dropping. In 2013 utility tractors accounted for 36% of the market.
Q1 is traditionally the slowest quarter for this segment accounting for on average 20% of the sales over the past 5 years.
In 2018 Q1 sales are in line with the broader market, up 9% on Q1 2017.
The 100-200HP category has been the engine room of growth in the past few years. There were 3,663 100-200HP tractors sold in 2017. In the past 5 years this segment has grown by 50% from the 2473 units retailed in 2012.
This segment traditionally starts the year slow and increases as the year goes on. Between 2013 and 2017, on average 21% of retails happened in Q1. EOFY has an impact on Q2 and Q4 is the strongest quarter averaging 28% of the retails.
This year the 100-200HP segment has got off to a flyer with units retailed up 27% on Q1 2017 to 939 units (and 50% up of the 5-year average for q1; 623 units). If this year continues the trend of previous years all bodes well for the OEMs and retailers in this category.
Over the past 5 years the majority of sales (58%) in the broadacre segment have been in the first half of the year with Q1 traditionally being the strongest quarter in the year and March the biggest month.
Q1 2018 was flat on Q1 2017.
2017 was flat on 2016 with 863 units sold
Traditionally not much happens in the first quarter of the year. Over the past 5 years on average 4.1% of the annual sales are made in the first quarter.
Q1 2018 is off to a good start with 44 units retailed compared to the 32 last year but all the real action is in September / October where 65% of units were retailed over the past 5 years.
Sales of bailers have been steadily growing the past few years. 2017 saw a substantial drop in sales (-24%) to 669 units.
Like combines. Bailers are highly seasonal and not much happens in Q1. (average 7.3% of sales over the past 5 years)
Q1 2018 saw 52 units retailed Vs 40 in q1 2017. Sept to November is key selling time with 67% were retailed over the past 5 years.
ATV / UTV
The ATV market was pretty flat selling 4,211 (-0.2%) units in Q1 (this number is incomplete as John Deere, Kioti, CF Moto and others do not supply sales data to the FCAI)
Polaris, again, was the main mover in the market selling 1,307 units and growing its market share from 27% Q1 2016 to 29% 2017 and now 31% q1 2018.
Honda was the only other OEM in positive territory growing 7.2% (65 units) to 973 units retailed. All other OEMs posted declines with BRP suffering the biggest drop (-22.4%). This time last year BRP was the biggest positive mover up 16.8% and the comparative drop may be due to portions in market last year.